Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Whoda thunk after 4 games that Baltimore’s battered secondary (missing Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworth, with Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington returning from torn ACLs) and Denver’s Kyle Orton (after losing Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler to trades) would be leading the league in pass defense and pass offense?
But for me it’s the opposite matchup that I think will decide this game. Denver’s patchwork secondary has been getting lit up, most notably rookie corner Perrish Cox. If Andre Goodman, the corner normally opposite Champ Bailey who‘s had a nagging hamstring injury, can’t play this week, then I don’t see how Denver stops a guy like Derrick Mason, with the assumption that Bailey mostly mathces up on Anquan Boldin.
Pick: Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
The team with the smallest fan base faces off against the team with potentially the most tortured fan base (Cleveland might claim that crown). Jacksonville is coming off a victory over #18 and the Colts but david Garrard is notoriously atrocious on the road and with the Marshawn Lynch drama behind, I expect the Bills running game to settle down. Fred Jackson should get the bulk of the carries and C.J. Spiller should get more opportunities. Oddly enough, Spiller in all likelihood would be a Jag had the bills not shocked the world by nabbing him with the ninth pick in the most recent draft. Anyways, the Bills have to win at some point, right?
Pick: Bills
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
For those who had Week 4 in their “How long will it take Jay Cutler to get concussed behind a terrible line in a Mike Martz offense” pool, congratulations. Cutler’s brain injury (though some would argue he didn’t have a brain in the first place) was as inevitable as Lindsay Lohan going to rehab. He holds the ball, looking to get 40 yards instead of a guaranteed 15 out in the flat, the line is awful, and seldom does Martz leave extra blockers in to help. With Todd Collins behind center, this Julius Peppers homecoming becomes a toss-up. Chicago shouldn’t be 3-1, Carolina shouldn’t be 0-4. I’ll flip-flop on this till kickoff but my heart pulls for the Panthers to get a little revenge on Peppers.
Pick: Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Really, my Bengals aren’t very good right now. I had a feeling they’d lose to the Seneca Wallace and the Browns and they did just that. The right side of their offensive line is awful and tight ends obliterate them downfield, which bodes well for Kellen Winslow. Nevertheless, I don’t think much of Tampa’s defense. The safeties are poor and whichever member of Batman and Robin isn’t covered by Aqib Talib should be open.
Pick: Bengals
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
At first glance, this should be a no-brainer. But Atlanta could easily be 1-3 with New Orleans and San Francisco both shot themselves in the foot in the A.T.L. the last two weeks. I might like the Browns if Seneca Wallace were starting but Rule #1 in picking games: Thou shalt not trust Jake Delhomme.
Pick: Falcons
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions
Sam Bradford has played wise beyond his years but I just have a feeling that the Lions are due. Look for Ndamukong Suh to get payback on Bradford for getting drafted ahead of him. Shaun Hill hasn’t been terrible filling in for Matthew Stafford (too bad we have to wait for Stafford v. Bradford), although his throws pretty much consist of “throw ball into flat to Jahvid Best” or “throw ball as high as possible for Calvin Johnson.”
Pick: Lions
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
You’d be lying if you said you thought the Chiefs would be the undefeated team coming into this game. While Indy is the favorite here, K.C. has lightning-quick playmakers in Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster and runs the ball very effectively. Safety Melvin Bullitt’s season-ending shoulder injury is a big blow for the Colts. If Matt Cassel can be decent, this one should at least stay tight.
Pick: Colts
New York Giants at Houston Texans
The consensus here seems to be Houston, with the pundits dismissing Big Blue’s effort against the Bears last Sunday night as more a product of what Chicago didn’t do as opposed to what the Giants did do. With Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones both game-time decisions, I don’t think Matt Schaub and company can get away with having Joel Dreessen have their leading receiver like they against the Raiders last week. If New York can keep Mario Williams off of Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith should light up the worst secondary in football.
Pick: Giants
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
With Clinton Portis injured again (What? No! Blasphemy!), Ryan Torain gets his first real crack at being the next Mike Shanahan rags-to-riches story. Torain followed Shanny to Washington after playing for him in Denver, where he didn’t stick with the Josh McDaniels regime. But in his defense, who does? He looked like the better back last week anyway, but was overshadowed by Donovan McNabb’s return to Philly. On the Green Bay side, their defenders are falling like flies, with starting rookie safety Morgan Burnett tearing his ACL against the Lions, and his near-namesake Nick Barnett out for the year with a wrist injury. Aaron Rodgers and the high-flying aerial attack have actually been pretty fitful lately, with their possessions seemingly ending in a big play touchdown, a three-and-out or a costly turnover. They’re like the Adam Dunn of football: home run, walk or strikeout with no in-between.
Pick: Packers
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
The Saints aren’t nearly as good as their 3-1 record suggests, but I can’t recall a worse 2-2 team than these Cardinals. Max Hall should’ve gotten this gig from the start because (insert obvious Derek Anderson joke here). Look for the Saints to dial up lots of pressures and different looks because, well, that’s the basically the cliché when facing young/rookie quarterbacks and it’s what New Orleans does anyway. The Saints offense has been anything but all-systems-go lately but they should manufacture enough points to win comfortably, say, 27-10.
Pick: Saints
Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans
It’s hard to decide whether Minnesota or Dallas had a better bye week. Sitting at 1-2, the Cowboys saw Philly lose Michael Vick and the game in Washington and find themselves tied in the loss column with each team in the division, the supposedly best in football. The Titans have been hot and cold, beating the Giants in New York in Week 3, then losing a home game they should have won to Denver last week. Such is life for such a young team, especially one that no longer has the leadership of LB Keith Bulluck (Giants) or C Kevin Mawae (retirement), both of whom the team decided they no longer needed. Dallas is more talented but one never knows whether the Cowboys will have their hearts in any particular game. With 1-3 a possibility and having had two weeks to prepare, my gut says they will this week.
Pick: Cowboys
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
While the Chargers are just getting their first-round runner back (Ryan Mathews), Oakland sees theirs (Darren McFadden) come down with a hamstring injury. Michael Bush should actually fill in admirably in the running game, but DMC will be missed in the passing game. I just don’t see how the Bolts lose this game, despite how close Oakland played them last year.
Pick: Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
Andy Reid, meet Karma. The Eagles coach gets just what he deserved with Kevin Kolb looking predictably gun-shy after taking over for the injured Michael Vick last week. That’s what happens when you yank a young guy after giving him one half of football to prove himself. I refuse to give up on this Niners squad and more specifically, Alex Smith. Their first four games were brutal, both in terms of their play and the schedule itself, but with Oakland, Carolina and Denver on the slate, don’t be surprised if they’re sitting at 4-4 as they hit the bye week.
Pick: 49ers
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
Well, if the Deadspin story about Favre’s inappropriate snapshots are true, I suppose his poor decision-making follows him off the field… Revisiting the best bye week point, Minnesota just a couple weeks ago is seemingly dead in the water at 0-2. Then they Adrian Peterson their way through the Lions to get their first win, reunite with Randy Moss, and see division rivals Chicago (Cutler) and Green Bay (Barnett, Burnett) lose key cogs. But the Jets won’t care about any of that Monday Night. Last we saw Darrelle Revis, he was grabbing his hamstring after getting burned by the Patriot version of Moss, but did that keep Revis from talking smack this week? Of course not. You can talk when you dominate the league like Revis did last year, but he should just zip it considering his most recent showing. The key for Minnesota will be if the pitiful Vikings line can protect the old gunslinger.
Pick: Vikings
